Another candidate for modern oracle?另一名候選人,為現代甲骨文?

July 22nd, 2004 | by ian | 2004年7月22日|由伊恩|

What happens if you have more at stake than your reputation when tying your horse to a prediction.發生什麼事如果你有更多的股份,比您的聲譽時,綁你的馬,以一個預測。 What if you have money at stake?如果你有金錢的股份? Or your job?或您的工作呢? See this interesting article from TIME.com:看到這個有趣的文章,從time.com : The End Of Management?年底管理?

Interesting concept that more efficient analysis of strategies and their outcomes may arise from creating a market where accurate predictions are rewarded.有趣的概念,更有效率的策略分析及其結果可能會出現從創造一個市場,準確的預測得到回報。

One small problem is that as anyone in finance, or really anyone who follows the stock market knows that markets are vulnerable to manipulation.一個小問題是,作為任何人在金融,或真正的人誰如下股市都知道,市場容易受到操控。 Implementing an efficient system may require that payoffs are not too low for people to care and aren’t too high for people to cheat.實施一個有效的系統,可能需要的報酬是不是太低的人照顧,並不算太高,為人民的欺騙。 I wonder if this is possible?我不知道如果這是可能的嗎? The problem seems to be generally that those with the most cash to burn can unduly influence the system and obtain the results they are looking for.這個問題似乎被普遍認為是那些最現金,以燒傷可以以不當方式影響系統,並取得結果,他們正在尋找。

Much like special interest groups supporting political parties with fat donations.很像特殊利益集團支持的政黨,劉皇發議員捐款。 Obviously the key needs to be appropriate checks and balances…problems arise when the checks and balances themselves can be perturbed via clever investing, say for example by很明顯,關鍵需要得到適當的制衡…出現問題時的制衡,自己可以通過攝動聰明的投資,譬如說,例如由 big media大媒體 .

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