Cloud computing - linear utility or complex ecosystem?
June 22nd, 2008 | by ian |Reuven of Enomaly speculates on whether there will be an analogue of Moore’s law for cloud computing, looking to coin “Ruv’s law.” I would like to see more detail on what it would postulate, presumably a linear relationship between growth in cloud computation and time. I think we would also agree this would need to stand the test of time before it would be considered “law.” Moore referred to a rather simple relationship between the number of transistors that can economically be used in electronic chips and time. The cloud is likely to become a very complex ecosystem, and defy simple linear rules of productivity. Rather I would expect the cloud to both behave in unexpected ways and exhibit emergent properties. On that note I am much more interested in the phase transitions, critical junctures where the properties of the system change radically, and what the underlying causes might be (technological breakthroughs, human behaviour, power shortages). I wouldn’t be shocked if the behaviour of clouds was as hard to predict as the weather (”5 day forecast calls for a 200 msec second standard deviation in latency with 10% probability of the jitters”) or the stock markets. I’m only slightly joking - my early experiences with sharing hosted grid computing resources have been variable (Mediatemple and Mosso have low cost plans). In any case I look forward to more clarity on cloud structure, composition, performance, any potential “laws” and above all the likelihood of rain… Anyone interested in a lively string of Q&A surrounding the much hyped “cloud computing” revolution should look in on the Google group for cloud computing and check what the insightful Alistair Croll of Bitcurrent has to say. Lots of folks are trying to define cloud computing these days (check out defogging the cloud for a nice simple explanation), and its hard to do partly due to a Cambrian explosion of diversity which makes the cloud(s) a fast moving target. As for me, I’m embracing the trend from the web operations trenches while keeping my sense of humour about the hype:
2 Responses to “Cloud computing - linear utility or complex ecosystem?”
By Michael Sheehan on Jun 23, 2008 | Reply
Ian,
Love the “Kitchen Sink” module, for lack of a better term. You have some interesting ideas about Moore’s Law. I would almost expect sort of a “scatter bar” type of chart that can be trended similarly to traditional Moore’s law for regular computing. Cloud Computing will, I would think, be proportionate to advances in technology since it is built on every-day hardware.
I have been trying to trend Cloud Computing on the GoGrid blog (http://blog.gogrid.com/2008/06/10/trending-various-computing-terms-clouds-are-getting-congested/) but in a much more layman’s way (just with Google Search terms). Since you mentioned MT and Mosso, you should definitely have GoGrid in your war chest when looking for cloud computing trends.
Thanks for the laugh!
-Michael
By Aaron deMello on Jul 8, 2008 | Reply
Nice article. I’ve been enjoying watching the slow but steady growth in traffic on the Google Groups Cloud Computing mailing list, even though my interests are less on the cloud aspect and more on the general purpose grid aspect, and how it can be applied to common and very serious IT issues today.