Another candidate for modern oracle?

July 22nd, 2004 | by ian |

What happens if you have more at stake than your reputation when tying your horse to a prediction. What if you have money at stake? Or your job? See this interesting article from The End Of Management?

Interesting concept that more efficient analysis of strategies and their outcomes may arise from creating a market where accurate predictions are rewarded.

One small problem is that as anyone in finance, or really anyone who follows the stock market knows that markets are vulnerable to manipulation. Implementing an efficient system may require that payoffs are not too low for people to care and aren’t too high for people to cheat. I wonder if this is possible? The problem seems to be generally that those with the most cash to burn can unduly influence the system and obtain the results they are looking for.

Much like special interest groups supporting political parties with fat donations. Obviously the key needs to be appropriate checks and balances…problems arise when the checks and balances themselves can be perturbed via clever investing, say for example by big media.

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